Lok Sabha Elections 2014: For Bookies, Narendra Modi is HOT, Arvind Kejriwal NOT
NEW DELHI: A day before Delhi goes to polls, the betting market has predicted that the Bharatiya Janata Party would emerge a clear winner and Narendra Modi the prime minister. However, with Modi being the clear favourite for PM, betting on him will get people the least number of bucks, bookies said.
TOI spoke to several bookies including master bookies who unanimously said that BJP will get 5-6 seats and Aam Aadmi Party 1-2 seats in Delhi which is also the projected score for the Congress. Till two days ago, the prediction for AAP was 2-3 seats.
Predictions for Lok Sabha seats across India for BJP on Wednesday evening stood at 231-233. For Congress, the figure was 71-73. AAP is expected to get 5-6 seats all over the country, bookies said.
“This means that if one places a bet of Rs 1,000 on BJP not getting 231 seats and the party actually wins 230 or fewer seats, the person will get Rs 1,000, or else he will have to pay the same amount. If the person places a bet of Rs 1,000 on BJP getting 233 and more seats and BJP does secure them, the person would get Rs 1,000 in that case, too. The money will get forfeited in case it turns out otherwise,” said a master bookie who allegedly has around 15 punters under him.
For the PM candidate, the bookies TOI spoke to said that if one placed (on Wednesday or Thursday morning) Rs 1 lakh on Modi as PM, they’d get Rs 40,000 if he won and, if they place the same amount on Rahul as PM, they would get Rs 5 lakh in case he won. However, most people are playing safe by betting on Modi as he seems to be the strongest candidate of them all. “Even the rates reflect this,” says a punter.
For Arvind Kejriwal, one would get Rs 600 for every rupee placed indicating that the bookmakers believe that there were the least chances of him becoming the prime minister. By betting on Mulayam Singh as PM, a person would get Rs 10 lakh for every lakh. For Mamata Banejee, the rate is Rs 16 lakh for every bet of one lakh.
If nationwide betting trends are to be believed, BJP is emerging with more than 300 seats in the polls. “In Madhya Pradesh, BJP is set to win 26 seats of 29 seats, in Uttar Pradesh, BJP is getting 50 out of 80 seats and in Chhattisgarh, the projected score for the party is 11 out of 11. For Andhra Pradesh, it is 24/42, and in Arunachal Pradesh, one out of two. It’s seven out of 14 in Assam, 30 of 40 in Bihar, two out of two in Goa and 24 out of 26 in Gujarat,” said a bookie.
In Haryana, bets are being placed for BJP winning four seats out of 10, In Himachal, BJP is seen to be winning one out of four seats. It’s average projected score is one out of six in J&K, 10 out of 14 in Jharkhand, 18 out of 28 in Karnataka and four out of 20 in Kerala. In Maharashtra, the same is 35 out of 48, while it’s seven out of 21 in Odisha, eight out of 13 in Punjab, 23 out of 25 in Rajasthan, eight out of 39 in Tamil Nadu, four out of five in Uttarakhand and 12 out of 42 in West Bengal.
“Our predictions say that BJP is winning no seats in Tripura, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Sikkim and Nagaland apart from three union territories,” said a master bookie.
(Posted on India Times)